CSED In the News
The Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy regularly provides analysis and commentary for local and national news stories. Please click on any of the following stories to read more.
December 29, 2010
“Kelly Patterson, head of Brigham Young University's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, said Herbert has no choice but to keep raising money. ‘Fundraising is driven by the immediacy of the cycle,’ Patterson said. ‘He's essentially required to dive back in.’”
December 21, 2010
“Immigration is a ‘nettlesome issue for politicians these days, particularly in the state of Utah,’ said Kelly Patterson, head of BYU's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. Patterson said the act has already been ‘characterized as amnesty’ for illegal immigrants. ‘Those are not labels that help him in any effort to seek re-nomination.’ But had Hatch cast a vote against the act, he may well have been criticized for changing his position. ‘What's more likely to hurt you, being labeled a flip-flopper or being too soft on immigration?’ By not voting, Patterson said Hatch was attempting to find some middle ground. ‘The more you have to explain yourself to voters, the worse off you are,’ he said.”
December 14, 2010
‘Schultz brings a level of sophistication that's beyond anything I've ever seen in a student,’ said BYU political science professor Quin Monson. ‘He comes to classes having already essentially managed a statewide campaign. That's pretty unusual.’ Whether it's Shultz' grassroots message, his youthful voice or his age-belying experiences, his message is rising above the blogging din and grabbing attention from places like the Huffington Post and TalkingPointsMemo.com — a monumental achievement, says BYU political science professor Adam Brown.
November 27, 2010
"'The devil is in the details as you work through that, but it's really quite tricky,' Patterson said. 'Representation is about a trust between you and your constituents."'
November 21, 2010
“‘I think a lot of that just depends on this next session of Congress,’ mused Kelly Patterson, BYU political science professor and director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. ‘I think a lot depends on what kind of influence (Chaffetz) has in the House in the upcoming session and what kind of difference he thinks he can make if he decides to switch offices.’”
“‘I think (Chaffetz) enjoys being an elected official,’ said Quin Monson, BYU political science professor and associate director of the CSED. ‘If he thinks he can win he will run; it's all a calculation of whether his chances are good.’ By his own account, Chaffetz concurs with Monson's analysis.”
November 4, 2010
"The panel included Hinckley director Kirk Jowers, Deseret News' Lisa Riley Roche, BYU political professor Quin Monson, Democratic lobbyist Frank Pignanelli and pollster Dan Jones...Monson said Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, is a rising star in Washington, D.C., because of his great public image and communication skills."
The Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy's Kelly Patterson and Quin Monson discuss voter discontent, why the Matheson race was so close, whether a Democratic can win a race in Utah County, why some former Utah Republicans are running without the party label, and more.
November 3, 2010
"'It has to do with the campaign environment,' said BYU political science professor Kelly Patterson, who was involved in exit polling and had pollsters at some places long past close. He said voters were heavily invested in particular issues or candidates, which drove them to the polls."
“Quin Monson, associate director of BYU's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, said Matheson's steepest challenge is that he's a Democrat in one of the reddest states in the nation. ‘He can never relax, because the context for him is so difficult. If there's a wave, it can swamp him,’ Monson said. Matheson survived this election because of the strength he has built up with moderate Republicans. ‘Over the years, he hung on to enough of them to survive,’ Monson said.”
“J. Quin Monson, a BYU political science professor and associate director of the BYU Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, reported the results of exit polling that identified 62 percent of Utah voters as Republicans, 27 percent as Democrats and 11 percent independents — a tangible rise in the relative number of Republicans and a decrease in Democrats from recent elections. ‘It's a Republican year,’ Monson said. ‘We saw higher proportions of Republicans in the exit polling than we've seen in recent years, which is a reflection of the increased enthusiasm that Republicans have this year about voting...' Monson cites displeasure with President Barack Obama as a common-theme catalyst for Republicans in Utah. 'I think it's easier to get excited when you have an opposition you can unite against,' he said. 'And I think the Obama administration provides something Republicans can focus on and unite against.'"
November 1, 2010
“Quin Monson, associate director of BYU's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, said the negative campaign ads from Corroon and both candidates in the 2nd District race may have had the most impact on voter turnout. ‘They might get turned off by it,’ Monson said. ‘But it's kind of like watching a car crash or a train wreck. It's not pleasant, but you can't advert your eyes.’ Negative ads signal a competitive race, Monson said, and their messages stick with voters already motivated by the anti-Democrat, anti-incumbent mood of the country.”
November, 2010
"Candidates in Utah’s First and Third Congressional Districts get quizzed about their accomplishments and stands on issues facing Utahns. Experts from the BYU Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy provide analysis."
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complete program.
Or, click on the following links to watch specific interviews:
Rob Bishop (R)
Morgan Bowen (D)
Jason Chaffetz (R)
Karen Hyer (D)
"Republican Mike Lee debates Democratic Party candidate Sam Granato at the KBYU-TV studios. The program also features expert analysis from Kelly Patterson, director of the BYU Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy."
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complete program.
"KBYU Eleven interviews Utah Second Congressional District candidates; incumbent Jim Matheson, a Democrat, and Republican challenger Morgan Philpot. Host Wes Sims discusses Second District campaign strategy and the results of a pre-election poll by the BYU Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy with Kelly Patterson, the Center’s director."
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complete program.
"Governor Gary Herbert debated his challenger from the Democratic Party, Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon on October 1, 2010. KBYU Eleven was there to capture the event as it happened. The debate was sponsored by the Utah Valley Chamber of Commerce and was recorded live at the Provo Marriott Hotel."
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complete program.
"Utah political pundits LaVar Webb and Pat Shea join Wes Sims, KBYU-FM news director, along with David Magleby, founder of BYU’s Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy for a wide ranging discussion of issues Utah Voters say they see as important in 2010."
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complete program.
October 27, 2010
"Kelly Patterson is a professor of political science at BYU. Patterson: The one lesson that the Republicans have not seemed to have learned in the Second Congressional District is that a very conservative candidate does not appeal to the necessary number of voters to win that district."
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radio program.
October 22, 2010
"At the BYU Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, director Kelly Patterson acknowledges Reid has a significant challenge on his hands. 'Anytime that you're in a dogfight with two weeks left to go and pollsters are calling it too close to call, you're in trouble,' Patterson said. 'Democrats will need to work even harder to make sure that their base is mobilized and turns out.'...Patterson says an Angle win would be historic, though it would be a loss of a high-profile symbol of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints' political diversity. 'There really is some diversity in Mormon political culture,' Patterson said. 'You do have your 'Mitt Romneys', but you also have your 'Harry Reids.'"
October 13, 2010
“Experts say that the switches may be noteworthy but that they won't have much of an impact on the Utah races. ‘There's a group of moderate Republicans that are disappointed in the direction the state party is taking, but the problem is they're not as large and energized as the group that took out Sen. Bennett,’ said Quin Monson, a political science professor at Brigham Young University.”
October 7, 2010
"Kelly Patterson, director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University, said the lawmakers might be underestimating Herbert, and how he governs for the next two years will matter more than how he campaigned during the past two weeks. It’s Herbert’s first statewide race at the top of the ticket, and candidates grow, Patterson said. 'Individuals acquire the skills about how to campaign, how to handle attacks. … All of those dimensions are really important about how to conduct a solid campaign, and no one really gets it 100 percent right the first time through,' Patterson said."
October 6, 2010
"That may not be enough, said Quin Monson associate director of Brigham Young University's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. Monson, who moderated one of last week's gubernatorial debates, said so far Corroon hasn't made a compelling case for the state's majority Republicans to switch their votes from Herbert. 'I don't think Republicans are going to abandon Herbert over questions,' Monson said. 'For Corroon to do damage to Herbert in terms of Republican voters, he needs a smoking gun and he doesn't have it.' Herbert just 'needs to keep his chin up for a month,' Monson said. 'You can kind of see it in his body language and his face, he's kind of tired of having to stand there and listen to this. But I think he's taking the right approach.' Monson said even though Herbert's campaign is likely ready with its own negative television commercials, they'd be smart to avoid airing them. 'Why have the campaign debate on Corroon's terms,' Monson said. 'Launching negative ads does bring the image of your opponent down, but it also brings your image down, too.'"
October 2, 2010
"'We're doing a significant amount of ethics reform, Herbert told moderator Quin Monson of the BYU Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy...One question broke from the standard set offered up at debates. Chinese authorities, Monson said, were harangued by the public after the massive earthquake there in 2008 caused the collapse of a number of schools and killed many children. What would either man do to ensure that Utah's aging education infrastructure didn't do the same thing if an earthquake struck here? After all, the state is on a fault line."
September 30, 2010
"On a pragmatic level, political scientist Quin Monson doesn’t see Corroon’s pick of a private school as having any impact on his ability to oversee public education. 'It is important symbolically,' said Monson, associate director of Brigham Young University’s Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. 'But it stops there.'”
September 27, 2010
"It is an unusual level of political involvement for a private company, according to Quin Monson, associate director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University. He called it a risky move. 'In a two-party system like ours,' Monson explained, 'when you attack one candidate, you are potentially angering a lot of people who you want to be your customers.' While EnergySolutions may not be interested specifically in customers, he said, the company has been trying to improve its public image. Dinging Corroon could damage EnergySolutions’ image among people who support the Democrat’s candidacy. 'Picking a fight with a candidate isn’t necessarily good P.R.,' Monson said."
September 22, 2010
"'Maybe [Governor Herbert] should do something to show he doesn't think he should be left in the dark,' said Quin Monson, associate director of BYU's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. Monson said voters will expect the governor to handle this quickly and decisively. 'That could be an official reprimand. That could include somebody resigning,' he said. 'That certainly says that he's decisive to me, that something concrete is being done.' And, he suggested, it could help redirect the focus of the gubernatorial campaign, now centered on the controversy over the influence of contributions to Herbert's campaign on the award of state contracts. 'You look weak when you sit passively by and do nothing in the face of controversy,' Monson said. 'This is not what Gary Herbert wants to be campaigning on for the next weeks.'"
September 2, 2010
"Money buys donors a seat at the table in Washington, said Kelly Patterson, a political science professor and director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University. And those can be nice seats to have. Lobbyists on good terms with lawmakers can help write laws, cajole staffers, or button-hole legislators themselves. Those kinds of interactions aren't easy to spot from donation records alone. 'They're not describing the totality of what life is like in Capitol Hill and how complex a representative's decision-making process can be,' Patterson said. 'The average voter isn't following him through the halls of Congress.'"
August 31, 2010
"J. Quin Monson, who teaches political science at Brigham Young University, said the campaign may be a response to the anti-Mormon bias that emerged, especially among evangelical Christians, during Romney's 2008 presidential campaign. 'It's not cool to be a racist; it's not acceptable to be biased against women, but the data I have shows its still socially acceptable to express bias against Mormons,' Monson said. From the right, the bias is theological, most notably the erroneous belief that Mormons are not Christians, Monson said. From the left, it's ideological, based on the church's opposition to gay marriage. 'Church leaders have realized Mormons have a public relations problem and that they ought to do something about it,' he said."
August 28, 2010
"Full disclosure of who is giving money doesn't translate to what that money gets a donor, says Kelly Patterson, a BYU political science professor. Studies show that on rare occasions, donations lead to a direct vote on a bill, said Patterson, director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University. More commonly, that money buys a seat at the table. 'The research does show, and this is clear, that campaign contributions do buy access,' he said. Access can mean a number of things: from access to wording in a bill to access to staffers to direct access to a lawmaker. And it's that kind of access that transparency -- who gives what -- can't show. 'They're not describing the totality of what life is like in Capitol Hill and how complex a representative's decision making process can be,' Patterson said. 'The average voter isn't following him through the halls of Congress.'"
August 25, 2010
"Kelly Patterson, political science professor and director of the BYU Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, says those hopefuls are busy 'shadow campaigning.' 'This is where individuals test messages,' Patterson tells KSL Newsradio. 'This is where they gather resources. This is where they assemble their own coalitions' ... '[If] the opposing candidates can't make an issue of it, sometimes it's not seen as flip-flopping. Sometimes it's seen as wise,' Patterson says. 'Whether or not it plays out as a flip-flopping narrative or a wise-statesman narrative is still yet to be seen' ... Looking ahead to 2012, Patterson says it is difficult to place one GOP hopeful above the other right now. Another front-runner, Sarah Palin, continues to find herself in the middle of controversy. Her most recent involves her statements on the plans for a ground zero mosque... Patterson talks up Bush's potential. 'He's one of those individuals who has a great deal of power and influence. A lot of people think [he's] a wonderful candidate,' Patterson says. 'Everything depends on whether or not he really wants to pursue the presidency. He's seen it from his father and his brother and knows how difficult and grueling it can be' ... Former Utah governor and current U.S. Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman is also seen as a 2012 possibility, though his stint in China may put him behind. 'Once again, the shadow campaigns begin now, and he doesn't have a whole lot of time to throw his hat in the ring,' Patterson says."
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radio program.
August 10, 2010
"In Utah, it's still an open question whether grassroots conservative groups will continue to ignore social issues, says Quin Monson, associate director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at BYU. 'The tea party movement is still very much in flux, so it's hard to measure trends,' he said. 'Without central leadership, no one can really control how the groups evolve.' Social issues rarely become campaign issues in Utah, because there is often 'very little light between the candidates,' with the state's Democrats usually taking moderate positions, Monson said. Despite this, Monson said social issues always remain under the surface, and events like the gay marriage legal battle can provide opportunities for candidates and activists to 'microtarget' groups of voters. 'The economy will likely remain the No. 1 issue, but social issues have the potential to be used,' he said. 'The future depends entirely on the political landscape. If the tea party movement continues to become more closely aligned with the Republican Party, other issues may come into play.'"
July 31, 2010
"Kelly Patterson, a political science professor at Brigham Young University, said it was refreshing to see an elected official admit a mistake. Patterson said it's normal for companies to line up support from politicians. 'What is not typical is for politicians to become a spokesperson for the company,' he said."
July 28, 2010
"Chaffetz's stance is out of step with most congressional Republicans and is clearly not supported by most of Utah's most active GOP voters, according to two polls conducted by Brigham Young University’s Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. The first poll involved Republican delegates before and after the state convention in May and had a 2 percent margin of error. It asked delegates whether they supported or opposed legislation to 'provide funding for an increase of troops in Afghanistan' and 64.8 percent favored an increase. A second poll of Republican primary voters conducted in June had a margin of error of 4 percentage points. It asked the same question and 66 percent of respondents favored a boost in Afghan war funding. Quin Monson, a BYU political scientist who worked on the polls, said any time a politician casts a vote that runs counter to the views of a majority of his supporters, he taps a well of trust. 'And you can’t go to the well too often,' he said. 'But typically a single vote is not enough to really do damage.' Actually, Monson believes Chaffetz's stance will have little if any repercussions, because he is opposing a Democratic president and his vote did not block the funding supported by Republican leaders. 'I think he gets a pass on this from virtually everyone,' Monson said...Chaffetz argued the war is too complex for such “bumper sticker” politics and he discounted the results of Monson's polling."
July 7, 2010
"'The founders would have been the first to have said it was an imperfect document,' said David Magleby, Ph.D., a political scientist and dean of the BYU College of Social Sciences. 'Slavery would be exhibit A, but suffrage would need to be exhibit B... That's not something that we would find acceptable today and the founders provided, in a very wise way, for flexibility'...'On the one hand, to protect religion so that it has its proper place and an important place in our lives, including our public lives, but not to go so far in embracing and endorsing that that we deny freedom of conscience to any person, including the freedom to not believe, if they so choose,' Magleby said."
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complete news story.
"How his constituents judge him remains to be seen, said Kelly Patterson, director of BYU's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, noting that voters are more forgiving for personal circumstances perceived as beyond the individual's control. 'The question is, what kind of responsibility and influence does he have over the budget,' Patterson said. And it's the kind of negative personal news that voters may retain in their minds when the 2013 mayor election comes around, Patterson added."
July 6, 2010
"'From time to time in American history, one group or another has seized upon it as a means to try and pursue their own political ends,' says David Magleby, political scientist and dean of BYU's College of Social Sciences...'I think it's unfortunate when we point at people and say, 'Well, I'm a better believer in the Constitution than you are.' I think our history has shown this is a deeply held value for all Americans,' Magleby says."
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complete news story.
"Such talk is typical at this point in a campaign, said Kelly Patterson, head of BYU's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. 'The campaigns are getting a feel for each other,' Patterson said. 'It's early in the campaign season, but serious campaigns focus on the details. They do sound like they're serious'... 'There's a general rule of thumb that incumbents are normally better served by doing fewer debates and challengers are better served by doing more,' Patterson said. Incumbents like to limit appearances alongside challengers, he said, because 'the more time they spend standing together, the more likely the voters are to see them in the same way'... Still, there are limits. 'They both have day jobs,' Patterson said. 'They can't spend their whole lives debating.'"
July 3, 2010
"'The state can make things very difficult for the city,' says Quin Monson, assistant director at Brigham Young University's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. 'They've proven they're willing to go down that road in the past. It seems to be a credible threat.' Yet Monson cautions that Republican legislators may not be unified on immigration. He expects competing views to come from hard-line reformers, states' rights advocates and a GOP business community that worries an Arizona-style bill would be 'bad for business.'"
July 2, 2010
"But Quin Monson, Associate Director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University, says Kagan’s record isn’t too far from Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who did get Hatch’s vote in 1993.'You know, I don’t see a record here that is too far afield from hers,' Monson says. 'I think what’s changed is not the issues that the nominees have been involved in. What’s changed is the political context.' Monson says Hatch is 'looking over his shoulder' at what happened to Senator Bob Bennett, who was ousted at the Republican state convention in May. Hatch had previously voted in favor of confirming Kagan as Solicitor General."
June 24, 2010
"The tea party movement, which had been instrumental in churning up opposition to Bennett in the primary, was apparently not a decisive factor, according to a poll released Wednesday by the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University. Both Lee and Bridgewater had endorsements from factions of the tea party, and the BYU poll found that the tea party support split evenly between the two camps. It also found that either Bridgewater or Lee would have fared well in hypothetical head-to-head matchups against Bennett in the GOP primary, with Lee beating the senator by 24 percent and Bridgewater prevailing by 18 percent."
"Quin Monson of BYU's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy doesn't expect any problems among Republicans. 'It's like a fight with your little brother. It gets nasty and then it's over. Your mom calls you to dinner,' he said. Monson helped conduct a study for the Center about the Senate race and didn't see any of the candidates as unliked by voters -- the favorability ratings for Lee and Bridgewater were at 65 percent."
"BYU's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy primary voter survey finds tea party supporters split evenly between Lee and Tim Bridgewater and despite the rhetoric that Bennett would have handily won in a primary, both Lee and Bridgewater smoked him in hypothetical match-ups."
"A pre-election poll by the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University found that 73% of Republican primary voters had a positive view of the Tea Party. When Ron Paul and Freedom Works endorsed Mike Lee prior to the election, that may have played a deciding factor. Utah Policy speaks with Professor Quin Monson, Associate Director of the Center about the Lee/Bridgewater race and how Rep. Jim Matheson scored such a decisive victory over Claudia."
"'There's no doubt that Mike Lee's path to the U.S. Senate was aided by his family connections,' said Quin Monson, associate director of BYU's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy...But Monson said a BYU poll of likely voters taken just before the election showed tea party supporters were almost evenly split between the two candidates. Just over 73 percent of the GOP voters polled viewed the tea party movement favorably, he said.
June 22, 2010
KBYU aired this program on the night of the Utah primary election, June 22nd, 2010. The program featured expert commentary by Dean Magleby and Director Patterson of the BYU Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy (CSED). The two professors also presented early results of the June 2010 Utah Voter Poll, a survey of likely Utah primary voters.
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complete program.
"'I don't think there's a large difference between them on the issues. So what we're left with is differences in background and style,' said Brigham Young University political scientist Quin Monson. 'It's not the most compelling thing to drive people to turn out and vote."'
"Spending only about 4 percent of what Matheson has spent on his campaign, Wright has still developed a strong grass-roots following, but she might suffer from a strategic hesitancy from Democratic voters when they step into voting booths, said Quin Monson, associate director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University. 'You're going to see voters who might prefer Claudia Wright but who vote for Matheson because he's going to hold the seat,' Monson said. Matheson has maintained his position despite serving a largely conservative district he won 45 percent of the vote from people who identified themselves as 'leaning Republican' in 2008, according to the Utah Colleges Exit Poll. To win, a Democrat needs at least 30 percent of that vote and Monson said he can't see Wright pulling such a number."
June 21, 2010
The Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy conducted a debate between Mike Lee and Tim Bridgewater and interviewed Jim Matheson and Claudia Wright. KBYU aired the program prior to the primary elections.
"In anticipation of the primaries on Tuesday, June 22, this special features a debate between US Senate contestants Mike Lee and Tim Bridgewater, and interviews with State Congressional contestants Jim Matheson and Claudia Wright."
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audio version of the program.
"Quin Monson, associate director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University, said anything could happen in the Senate contest...Monson said the shots the campaigns have fired at each other are an attempt to make the choice more clear-cut for voters."
"Quin Monson is even less optimistic...'I wouldn't be shocked if it were in single digits,' said Monson, with BYU's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy...'We have a very small group of citizens that's basically sending someone to the U.S. Senate to represent us until I get close to retirement,' said Monson, 40. 'That's a little bit sobering."'
"Kelly Patterson, director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University, said the Senate's longer terms — six years, as opposed to two years in the U.S. House of Representatives — help 'nullify public opinion.' He said it would take multiple election cycles to make any real difference in how the Senate operates. In the meantime, Patterson said, taking ideological stands 'may not be the best strategy for Utah's future growth."'
June 20, 2010
"It could be a hugely important election, possibly deciding two of the five legislators who make up the Utah delegation in Washington, but that doesn't necessarily mean it will bring people to the polls, said Quin Monson, associate director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University. 'The primary is a sleepy time of year,' he said. 'You're heading into summer, people are out of school and away.' The last comparable June primary was in 2004 when former Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr., former Rep. Chris Cannon and two-time challenger John Swallow all won Republican primaries. Yet the turnout that year was a dismal 14 percent statewide...Monson said officials might be pleased just to see a turnout percentage in the double digits."
June 16, 2010
"A post-convention poll by Brigham Young University's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy showed that about a third of those who saw the mailer initially believed it had been sent by the Lee campaign and found it highly offensive."
June 15, 2010
"'When [Wright] makes an accusation that says he’s taking corporate money she’s not correct, because that’s illegal,' Brigham Young University political scientist Quin Monson told
The Salt Lake Tribune. 'Technically, Matheson is correct.' But PACs do use their members’ money to advance industry causes — if not individual corporations — in Congress. 'They’re banding together for a reason, and the reason is they would like to see policy and regulations go in a certain direction,' Monson said. 'But that may not be why they’re donating to Matheson.' Often industry PACs give to incumbents merely because they are incumbents and therefore likely to win, Monson said. Other times the money is a reward for a voting record that already aligns with the PAC."
June 12, 2010
"According to the 2008 Utah Colleges Exit Poll, conducted by the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, Matheson received 45 percent of the vote from people who identified themselves as leaning Republican. While Wright wouldn't have to do that well, any Democrat would need about 30 percent of the vote to win the district, Monson said."
June 11, 2010
"'You have to give the edge to Bridgewater,' said Quin Monson, a political science professor at Brigham Young University. 'He got the most votes in the convention...' Monson says that the race is still volatile and small things could tip the balance, since the candidates have few policy differences."
"'Short of a total collapse by the Republican candidate, a scandal, she can’t win,' said Quin Monson, assistant director of Brigham Young University’s Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. Monson said exit polls conducted by his school have shown 'between a quarter and a third' of voters who identified themselves as Republicans voting for Matheson."
"Utah Senator Bob Bennett has given his endorsement to one of the two candidates who put him out of a job: businessman Tim Bridgewater, who took first place at the Republican state convention last month, and will face attorney Mike Lee in a primary on June 22nd. But with so much anti-Bennett sentiment within the Utah GOP, is an endorsement from Bennett entirely a good thing? KCPW’s Jeff Robinson posed that question to Quin Monson, Associate Director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University."
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radio program.
June 10, 2010
"Brigham Young University pollster Quin Monson called Bennett's backing a 'good thing on balance' but noted the opposition remains significant, specifically when it comes to Bennett's vote for the financial bailout in 2008. 'He's a smart guy, and he's likable personally, but there were a lot of people upset about TARP,' Monson said."
"'The bottom line here is that the primary election voters are not the same as the convention delegates, said Quin Monson, an assistant professor of political science at Brigham Young University. 'To be sure, they're conservative, but it's a different crowd.'"
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complete news story.
'"The problem with Bennett with this crowd is he's such a mixed bag. People have real mixed feelings about him,' said Quin Monson, assistant director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University. 'On the balance, this will probably help Bridgewater more than it will hurt him among those arch-conservatives who cheered when he was defeated.'"
May 28, 2010
"The blowback may have been one of several factors that hurt Lee's performance at convention, said Kelly Patterson, director of the BYU center. 'It may have spattered some mud on the Lee campaign,' he said. 'It wouldn't be the cause of them not voting for Mike Lee, but may have been one more reason to begin to look more seriously at Tim Bridgewater...' Patterson said the postconvention poll also showed that Bridgewater's speech impressed delegates and may have played a part in the outcome, as well. Bridgewater and Lee had similar approval ratings, which Patterson said could mean that delegates viewed them as basically interchangeable... That survey found 97 percent of the GOP delegates believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, a figure that astounded Patterson and made it a tough fight for Bennett. 'This is a very hard campaign for an incumbent to win,' Patterson said, 'when you talk about 97 percent of the delegates think the nation is off on the wrong track.'"
May 17, 2010
"Kelly Patterson, director for the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University, said the candidates could easily expect to spend a half-million dollars between now and the primary, and that would fund a fairly modest campaign...Patterson said both candidates also have to re-tool their message some to reach the broader group of Republican primary voters. 'I think the tricky part is: How do you keep that base you've used to get through the convention and then make it attractive to an electorate that is a bit softer' on core issues, Patterson said. 'You don't want to change your actual issue positions, but you do want the rhetoric to make it sound more appealing, and that's always the dance candidates engage in.'"
"Kelly Patterson, director for the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University, says the first thing a write-in candidate faces is overcoming the logistics..."
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listen to the program.
May 12, 2010
"Could the anti-incumbent attitude of today affect Hatch's race in 2012? Kelly Patterson, director of the BYU Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, spoke with Grant and Amanda about that."
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radio program.
May 11, 2010
“BYU political science professor Kelly Patterson says this isn't just about ideology; it's a vote for systemic change. Tuesday, Patterson and others join Doug for a look at what it all means for Utah and the country.”
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complete radio program.
"'I was surprised to see Bridgewater come out on top,' said Quin Monson with BYU's Center for Study of Elections and Democracy. Monson had conducted a poll showing Lee out front with a primary likely against Bridgewater. The lead switch, he believes, came at the last minute. 'I really do think there were some dynamics in the last two or three days and even at the convention itself,' he said."
May 10, 2010
"Guests Kelly Patterson and Quin Monson discuss Utah politics in light of the weekend's state GOP convention."
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complete radio program.
May 7, 2010
“‘It's an anti-establishment uprising. It's a frustration with things as they are,’ says Kelly Patterson, the director of Brigham Young University's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. ‘And so most individuals who are associated with that Washington establishment are going to have a hard time convincing these delegates that they are the right people to lead the nation into the future.’”
Click here to listen to the
complete radio program.
May 4, 2010
“‘To Eagar’s credit, she stayed in the fray when others pulled out,’ said Kelly Patterson, director of Brigham Young University’s Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. ‘Those first few candidates helped define the issues that would be important to the delegates’ – including big government, budget deficits, and the Constitution, Patterson said.”
“Kelly Patterson, head of BYU’s Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, agreed Allen could boost the Democratic ticket’s credibility with moderate GOP voters. ‘If you don’t do well among them,’ Patterson said, ‘you don’t have much of a chance.’ And finding a Democratic running mate ‘who’s visible, credible, and experienced can be tough,’ he said. ‘There just aren’t as many of those as there are Republicans.’”
May 3, 2010
“Brigham Young University political scientist Kelly Patterson said in such a tough fight, Bennett must rely on his three terms of experience. ‘It’s really the only card he has to play,’ he said. ‘The real question is how firmly the delegates believe there is this ideological difference between them and Senator Bennett.’ Patterson said Bennett may sway some in D.C., but his strategy also comes with an inherent risk. With a general anti-incumbent mood in the nation, Bennett may turn people off by reminding them he’s part of the Washington establishment.”
“Although it is not a game changer, according to Kelly Patterson, a political scientist at Brigham Young University, it could improve Corroon's chances by sending a ‘signal to moderate Republicans that it is OK to cross over party lines and vote for him.’”
May 2, 2010
“Kelly Patterson, director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University, said the state delegates are tuned into who Bennett's challengers are, much more so than the average voter at this point, so the average voter is more likely to back the guy they know. ‘What you're measuring at that level is just popularity,’ he said. In light of that, he said the challengers actually stack up better than he would have expected. ‘Obviously this campaign has broken through a little bit,’ Patterson said. ‘People are paying attention.’”
April 30, 2010
“‘Until Herbert stumbles,’ said Quin Monson, associate director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University, ‘it is his race to lose.’”
April 26, 2010
“Brigham Young University political scientist Kelly Patterson said the latest poll numbers reflect the anti-Washington, anti-incumbency mood sweeping the country… ‘People become associated with the Washington establishment in the minds of these delegates, and it's really hard to persuade them otherwise,’ Patterson said. ‘Clearly, they're frustrated with this political process, and there are times when it's difficult for an incumbent to run against Washington.’ Bennett's battles this year and the other poll numbers offer Hatch a chance to head off his own right-wing fight. ‘The good news [for Hatch] is that it's two years away, and two years is an awfully long time in politics,’ Patterson said. ‘Moods can change and problems can get solved. He has two years to recraft, reshape any part of his image he would like.’”
April 23, 2010
“‘It would send a significant message if Corroon picked outside his party and could help him attract some of the moderate Republican voters he has to get to have a shot at knocking off Gov. Gary Herbert,’ said Quin Monson, associate director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University. ‘I don't think you could send a clearer signal about your bipartisanship or your ideological moderation than to go ahead and put someone on the ticket from the other party,’ Monson said. ‘I think it's a smart idea to at least be talking about.' It could cause some dissent among the liberal wing of the Democratic Party, Monson said, but the real challenge would likely be finding a Republican willing to take the position, since doing so would likely make the candidate an outcast in the GOP and doom any future political aspirations they might have in the party. ‘You'd be a pariah. You'd be done,’ he said.”
April 5, 2010
“As BYU political scientist Kelly Patterson said, ‘Instinct tells you that a big influx into any sort of political process tends to favor insurgents…. Normally that does not bode well for incumbents.’”
April 2, 2010
“‘I don't know that I would get too cynical,’ said Quin Monson, assistant director of Brigham Young University's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. “It sounds in this case that it really is a deal that's been worked on for months or years.’ Monson's retort to the cynics: ‘How do you turn around a proposal as complicated as this so soon after the [health care] vote?’ Anyway, said fellow BYU political scientist Kelly Patterson, director of the center, any politician who doesn't time announcements for maximum benefit isn't up to the job. ‘That's not a calculation unique to Rep. Matheson,’ Patterson said. ‘This is how they advertise to their constituency what they're accomplishing.’ Matheson's proposal wouldn't just lock up land in wilderness, it would protect the long-term future of Utah's development and economy, Patterson said, because ‘you have to have a stable supply of water.’”
March 31, 2010
"'Instinct tells you that a big influx into any sort of political process tends to favor insurgents,' said Kelly Patterson, director of BYU's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. 'Normally that does not bode well for incumbents."
March 25, 2010
"Quin Monson, associate director for the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University, attended a caucus and the turnout was remarkable, but 'people respond more when they're feeling under siege.' But he said there may have been more support for Bennett than was apparent. 'The people who I saw who were anti-Bennett were the most vocal, but I think there was a group of delegates in our caucus and probably at other caucuses who were, if not pro-Bennett, were not antagonistic,' said Monson, 'but they were a little intimidated by the vehemence of the anti-Bennett crowd.'"
March 22, 2010
CSED's David Magleby, Kelly Patterson, and Quin Monson conducted interviews with each of the major Utah candidates for U.S. Senate in 2010. The program included data from the CSED's latest Utah Voter Poll survey and expert analysis of the upcoming senatorial campaign. It aired the day before Utah's neighborhood caucus meetings.
Click here to watch the
complete program.
Or, click on the following links to watch specific interviews:
Tim Bridgewater (R)
Mike Lee (R)
Sam Granato (D)
Robert Bennett (R)
Cherilyn Eagar (R)
Merrill Cook (R)
Christopher Stout (D)
March 19, 2010
"'If you're talking about winning, you're not doing better,' said Kelly Patterson, director of BYU's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy...'It takes a lot of time -- a generation, sometimes two generations -- to build a name, a trust, an organization,' Patterson said...'You can't win office if something happens and nobody's running from the opposing party,' Patterson said."
March 16, 2010
"'What's really fun about being a delegate is that you become the candidates' best friend all of a sudden,' said Quin Monson with BYU's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy... 'I don't think Bennett is getting out of this convention without a primary. The stakes are pretty high,' Monson said."
March 13, 2010
"Brigham Young University political scientist Quin Monson said Garn had little choice but to resign. 'People can overcome and get on with their lives,' Monson said. 'But it doesn't necessarily mean we need to have them in a position of power and public trust.'"
February 25, 2010
"Quin Monson, associate director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University, doubts Cook's entry will have much impact on Bennett's chances at winning the nomination. Bennett still will have his supporters. The difference is that Cook adds a fifth contender for the non-Bennett voter. 'The task may be more difficult for the non-Bennett crowd,' he said. 'They will have more clutter to fight through to distinguish themselves.'"
February 2, 2010
"Quin Monson, associate director of Brigham Young University's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, said it may be a 'wise move' for Democrats to wait. 'Certainly the odds won't get any worse over the course of the year,' he said. 'The downside to waiting is you don't see immediate action. But the upside may be success in the long run."
January 31, 2010
"Quin Monson, associate director of Brigham Young University's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, agreed. 'This shift certainly ought to get the attention of the state Legislature and the governor,' he said."
January 30, 2010
"Becker, too, deserves credit for swaying public opinion, says Quin Monson, associate director of Brigham Young University's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. It's likely, Monson says, that the LDS Church's endorsement influenced many members of the faith, but opinions among non-Mormons changed, too. 'Perhaps the whole discussion around what happened in Salt Lake City and Salt Lake County did as much to change minds among voters' as the endorsement, Monson says. 'You can think of our political leaders leading out, taking some leadership and taking public opinion along with them'... 'This shift,' Monson says, 'certainly ought to get the attention of the state Legislature and the governor.'"
January 22, 2010
"'People are not ready to answer yet,' said Quin Monson, associate director of Brigham Young University's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy, who said the numbers seem to follow the state's split between Republicans and Democrats. 'It is not great news for either one. It is not devastating news for either one.'"
January 19, 2010
"Brigham Young University political scientist Kelly Patterson said Oda will have to explain the incident to delegates, but 'it probably isn't a dealbreaker.' Like most things in politics, it all depends on how he plays it. Generally being straightforward and honest with people helps a great deal,' Patterson said. 'Delegates are generally pretty engaged individuals and can separate out events and personalities and put it in a different context.'"
January 15, 2010
"That probably is a prudent approach in Salt Lake County, which handed Barack Obama a majority vote during the 2008 presidential election, according to Quin Monson, associate director of Brigham Young University's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. While a more purist approach to Republicanism might work elsewhere in Utah (like Utah County), where the GOP majority is more pronounced, Monson said the more competitive Salt Lake County cannot afford to alienate moderates. 'If a party wants to win,' he said, 'then it has to be able to attract a broader coalition.'"
January 13, 2010
"Such a link is not good for the church, said Quin Monson, assistant director Brigham Young University's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. If Mormons are tied to the GOP, that party 'takes them for granted and Democrats write them off. They don't get help from anyone.' Even on small issues from missionary visas to immigration exemptions, Monson said, 'you do want somebody to return your phone calls.'
January 9, 2010
"'The Democratic Party is probably delighted to have him running — a credible, high-profile candidate,' said Kelly Patterson, head of Brigham Young University's Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy. Given Utah's Republican-dominated politics, Patterson said the race won't be easy for Corroon, especially because he's not well known outside the Salt Lake area. 'It's an uphill struggle, but it's not impossible," Patterson said."
January 6, 2010
"Quin Monson, associate director of the Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy at Brigham Young University, said Lee is an intriguing candidate because he is smart and well-spoken, but it remains to be seen how he can perform as a candidate and whether he can raise money to compete. Monson said he still figures Bennett is the favorite to survive the Republican convention, but the race now is 'certainly more interesting than it was. I think Mike Lee is a very credible candidate.'"
January 1, 2010
"A moderating trend in traditionally conservative Utah also became evident in former Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr.'s stance on the environment, civil unions and other issues, Brigham Young University political science professor Kelly Patterson says. Gov. Gary Herbert seems, in some ways, to be following suit. 'The state,' Patterson says, 'while still conservative, is less conservative.'"
